价格信号显示经济仍存隐忧——2019年6月通胀数据点评

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核心观点

6月份CPI同比增长率与上个月持平。结构变化的逻辑与前几个月的逻辑不同。也就是说,由于供应因素,尤其是猪和水果的价格,食品价格正在支撑整体通胀水平。然而,水果价格的季度环比增幅已经收窄。非食品仍然疲软,反映出总经济需求需要改善。 PPI较前一个月下降0.3%,工业品价格几乎完全下跌。由于海外供应,只有铁矿石减少,上游采矿业的价格上涨。 PPI短期通缩的风险有所增加,但幅度相对有限。

总结

短期内经济仍面临压力,终端需求疲弱使得CPI难以突破。 6月份,CPI同比上涨2.7%,与前值持平。虽然它目前处于今年的高点,但从环的角度来看,它在6月份下降了0.1%,并连续三个月减弱。核心CPI和非食品价格仍然低迷。

从分项来看,食品价格持续上涨,猪肉和水果继续上涨。 6月份的食品同比增长8.3%,为2012年以来的最高水平。以猪价,家禽价格和水果价格为代表。增长的核心因素是供应紧缩,需求方面相对稳定。其中,猪的价格较上月上涨3.6%,创2018年初以来的新高。目前,非洲猪的防治仍未采取有效措施。供应不足正在进一步蔓延,没有降温趋势。预计后续价格将继续上涨。在夏季,大量新鲜蔬菜被列入,价格下降。 6月份,下降趋势继续扩大至-9.7%。水果价格仍然“非常”,6月份的同比增幅已经扩大到42.7%,创2006年以来的新高。然而,随着夏季水果市场,苹果和梨的价格已经被削弱到在某种程度上,链条的整体价格已经缩小。预计未来两个月苹果和梨的供应将逐渐恢复,水果的价格将不再继续受到食品价格的影响。有一个增量贡献。

非食品价格继续“走下坡路”。 6月份非食品价格同比上涨1.4%,连续四个月下跌,这一现象在过去三年中很少发生。终端需求疲软的信号基本确定。从每个子项目的角度来看,服装,日用品和服务以及交通和通讯的价格下降,而住房和教育,文化和娱乐的价格持平,只有医疗保健和其他服务的价格上涨。核心CPI同比上涨1.6%,与之前的价值一致。从今年的趋势来看,它也呈下降趋势。考虑到第三季度终端需求的有限改善和基数,预计非食品价格仍难以回升。

回顾过去,我们仍然保持着CPI高点在这一年中已经过去的基本观点。根据我们对数据的持续跟踪,过去几个月CPI结构变化的逻辑不同,猪价的上涨将成为全年结构性上涨的主要逻辑。影响整体消费者价格指数的其他因素,如汇率,贸易战和税收,暂时未能发挥作用。与第二季度相比,预计第三季度通胀中心将下降,核心CPI将保持低位,或者等到第四季度才会出现转机。

PPI fell on a month-on-month basis, and industrial prices fell almost across the board. The PPI in June increased by zero year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. The prices of industrial products fell almost across the board, and the PPI fell by 0.3% from the previous month, ending the positive growth of the previous four months. The PPI's year-on-year growth rate has dropped to zero to some extent, and there are also reasons for the base. Overall, we believe that the decline in industrial products is due to weak demand, while the supply brought by the accelerated production has increased. From the perspective of the PPI, the industrial products of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the chain fell, with the price of raw materials in the middle and midstream falling by 1%, the largest, and the mining and processing fell by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. From the perspective of sub-items, the price of upstream oil exploration, mid-stream oil processing industry and chemical raw materials and chemical products were all positively and negatively affected by the downward trend of oil prices. The remaining midstream industries such as ferrous metal smelting and non-ferrous metal smelting also declined. However, the recent tight supply of overseas iron ore has led to an increase in the domestic ferrous metal ore price ratio, but it does not hinder the overall price decline.

Looking back, the PPI may have a certain risk of deflation, but the magnitude is relatively limited. Judging from the hikes, the base figure was higher in the third quarter of last year. Moreover, the global economy is down or just beginning, often accompanied by the difficulty of industrial prices, especially the price of crude oil. It is expected that there will be no obvious improvement in the second half of the year, which will drag down the year-on-year. The risk of deflation has intensified, but it is expected that the negative growth rate will be relatively limited, and it will not be too pessimistic. It is expected that the domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policy will volatility in the bottom half of the economy in the second half of the year, and the infrastructure acceleration will be more certain, which will partially offset the downward pressure on industrial product prices.

This article is excerpted from the report issued by CITIC Securities Research Department on July 10, 2019《2019年6月通胀数据点评:价格信号显示经济仍存隐忧》, the specific analysis content (including related risk tips, etc.) please refer to the relevant report. In case of ambiguity due to the abstraction of the report, the full content of the date of publication of the report shall prevail.

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